Ranking the NBA's rookie class so far (And No. 1 is not who you think it is)

With all the hyperbole around Victor Wembanyama being the next generational talent, it’s fair no one expected competition against him winning Rookie of the Year Award. But after sitting all last season due to an early leg injury — Chet Holmgren has beaten the injury-prone allegations to emerge as the front-runner to the Rookie of the Year crown.

This was a draft of athletic wings, and it’s fair to say nobody saw the early season struggles of many lottery picks. Where the pieces will fall is still up in the air, but there has been enough sample size to make early predictions on where the top 10 rookies rank thus far. As we head into the final weeks of December, here is a look at how the NBA rookie class stacks up as of games played through Dec. 11.

Picking seventh in last summer’s Draft feels like appropriate Wizards purgatory. They have no future stars on their roster, so they might as well take a culture guy who will fill the margins and do the dirty work. I just described Coulibaly in easy-to-understand terms, but his impact on the court can’t be quantified. Well, except for being the youngest Wizard ever to record a double-double at 19 years and 135 days. Coulibaly has all the tools to become a better version of Dorian Finney-Smith, the archetype every team needs multiples of. Coulibaly has to first survive the never-ending Wizards rebuild and the eventual overturn of the current roster. He should be next in line for an offensive jump, if he is around after the dust settles. Then again, this is the Wizards we are talking about.

Hawkins is the most under-the-radar rookie, but has been a big part of providing the Pelicans with the best backcourt depth they’ve had this era. The 21-year-old Hawkins erupted multiple times in November: 25 points on five threes against the Jazz in late November and 31 points on seven threes during an early November Denver game. The Pelicans have needed shooting around Zion Williamson and Hawkins gives them another sniper next to Trey Murphy, who can volume shoot at a decent clip. Hawkins is a mentee of fellow UConn Huskie Ray Allen and seems cut from the same cloth as a movement shooter capable of changing a game’s momentum with his shooting.

Kevin Lawson said “shooting” when the Richardson High School coach was asked what Wallace needed to work on once he got to the NBA. The defensive excellence was always there. As was the motor, effort and IQ. Lawson should be proud Wallace has one of the best early three-point shooting percentages in the entire NBA. Wallace has shown flashes that he could eventually replace Luguentz Lu Dort as the starting two guard and provides the backup guard minutes and defensive prowess the Thunder have been missing. It’s hard to go wrong with Kentucky guards, and Wallace came in with NBA-level defensive acumen and now has revealed a sharpshooting three-point shot, courtesy of the spacing behemoths Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren provide.

The Detroit Pistons stink. But don’t blame Thompson, who has quickly revealed himself as the best defensive and rebounding player from the lottery. An average 8.4 RPG as a rookie wing is unheard of. To also do it with shooting splits of 46/15(!)/68 is equally unbelievable. You read that right; he’s shooting 15% from three. That is a Ben Wallace level of asscrack shooting. It’s caused him to be benched multiple times by head coach Monty Williams this early in the season because of his lack of spacing, which doesn’t help Detroit’s current position as 26th in the NBA in three-point percentage. But Thompson is a high-motor athlete and already possesses two or three elite attributes early in his career. The challenge will be to become a better shooter, as his G League stats last year projected early struggles: 30% from three. It will be even harder with his team’s porous spacing, effort and performance so far.

The Heat have done it again. By selecting Jacquez with the 18th pick in the draft, they have shown a propensity to scout talent outside the lottery year after year. Jacquez comes to the Heat with the motor and mentality needed to play right away. His old-man game has earned him 27 MPG while contributing as a dependable closer. His breakout gives Latinos a fun player to root for while proving that four-year college players can still hold value and provide unforeseen ceilings to their game once in the NBA. Jaquez is just the sixth player with Mexican citizenship to reach the NBA and the highest-selected Mexican American ever. La Raza!

The Charlotte Hornets looked to be staying status quo when they chose Miller over the Thompson twins with the second pick in the draft. But the team is one of the biggest talent vacuums in the NBA, and with LeMelo Ball and Miles Bridges both sitting for stretches due to injury and suspension for beating his girlfriend, respectively, Miller has had a chance to shine. Miller, who was accused of bringing a gun to a teammate later used for murder, joins a problematic young Hornets core. His athleticism and three-point shooting have injected a youthful secondary option next to Ball. Miller was one of the most ready-made players of this draft and if he can avoid the cesspool of Hornets culture, he could end up being a solid starter with two-way potential.

It’s crazy how the Jazz have had continued luck at point guard since John Stockton retired. In the past 15 years, the Jazz landed franchise cornerstone guards Deron Williams and Donovan Mitchell. With the Jazz in rebuild mode after trading Mitchell last year, it looks like they’ve found another solid floor general in George. The former Baylor Bear leads all rookies in assists per game, and he’s the only rookie to notch multiple games with 11 assists. With Jordan Clarkson and Colin Sexton shouldering the load of responsibility to facilitate, George has split the season coming off the bench and starting. But the Jazz will need him to find his shot to become the next great franchise guard, as George currently manages an atrocious 36.2% from the field and 32.2% from three.

Many prognosticators around the league are holding this L on Lively right now. It was easy to laugh at the Dallas Mavericks, who have screwed up almost every draft they have picked from in the last 25 years, to mess this up. They committed an egregious tank job to keep the pick from converting to the Knicks and then committed the cardinal sin of taking a center in the late lottery. But playing alongside two of the greatest passers in NBA history, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, has fast-tracked Lively as one of the fiercest lob threats in the NBA. Mavs fans are breathing a sigh of relief that the franchise has the best center science. Tyson Chandler and Dwight Powell remain on the bench. With his elite athleticism and offensive awareness, Lively has perfected the short roll and attacks the rim on lobs and dunks. His maturity as the starting center has been impressive, providing rebounding, shot-blocking and dunking (!) at the center spot.

Wemby has struggled with efficiency from the field (43.1%) and from three (25%), but all the tools are there. While Chet Holgrem plays with one of the best point guards in the league, Wemby has to create much of his offense playing alongside Jeremy Sochan as Pop’s newest experiment. It’s easy to predict that once the Spurs lock in a natural point guard, or if Wemby and Chet swapped places, Wemby would be just as, if not more efficient than Chet is with OKC. The Spurs are only playing Wemby 30 minutes per game, a sign they are taking things slow with him while not wanting his shooting percentages to dip even further with more minutes. There’s zero cause for alarm. Let the young man continue to take his punches. He is too gifted not to figure it out when things slow down for him eventually, and he gets teammates who can find him in his sweet spots on the floor.

Have you seen Chet’s handle? Even in the year 2023 of our Lord, it is still a bewildering sight to behold a 7-foot-1, rail-thin behemoth, who looks like one of the villainous family members from Texas Chainsaw Massacre, handle the rock with such tight control, creating space before switching hands and backing into a defender and fading away with a silky-smooth jumper. What we were supposed to see from Wemby, we are instead witnessing from Chet. And it’s a beautiful sight to behold. Chet’s ready-made game has boosted the Thunder from a developing project to a ready-for-primetime player. His rebounding has been his biggest weakness, but his shot-blocking instincts as a help defender and 38% shooting from the perimeter make the Thunder one of the hardest teams to scheme against. It also has them in the top 10 offensive and defensive ratings.