If the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers and the Writers Guild of America fail to reach an agreement on a new contract by 11:59 p.m. ET tonight, the resulting strike will shut down production of many movies and TV shows in Hollywood. The longer the (hypothetical for now) strike continues, the less shooting will be done.
The effect for some television viewers will be seen right away—you’re SOL if you like of-the-moment late night talk shows and sketch comedy—and if it drags on as long as previous strikes, just about everyone who enjoys scripted entertainment will notice changes, although they may be more subtle than in previous strikes.
How the writers’ strike will affect viewers in the short term
Television shows with a quick turn-around—your Jimmy Kimmels, Stephen Colberts, and Jimmy Fallons—are likely to cease production the moment the strike begins. These shows rely heavily on their writers and can’t be produced in advance—they don’t work if no one is there to write Ron DeSantis jokes. If the strike happens, Tuesday’s late night talk show lineup will likely be re-runs. During the last strike, the main late night talk shows eventually started airing episodes without writers, but whether that will happen this time, and when, is anyone’s guess.
News shows, including entertainment news shows, reality shows, sports, and interview-based talk shows are not subject to the WGA agreement and will be unaffected by any strike.
Saturday Night Live has three shows scheduled for May, none of which will be shot if the strike goes on for more than a short time, so fans of late night sketch comedy will be watching re-runs too. If the strike is protracted, the season finale won’t happen, so departing cast members won’t be able to say goodbye.
Believe it or not, there are still three soap operas being produced. The Bold and the Beautiful, General Hospital, and The Young and the Restless aren’t as immediate as late night talk shows. Soaps are usually shot few weeks in advance of airing, so soap opera fans will not see a strike-related disruption in their “stories” (as my grandma used to call ‘em) for a month or so. But after that, the networks are likely to be airing either re-runs or placeholder shows.
How the writers’ strike will affect viewers in the longer term
Hopefully, a satisfactory 11th-hour agreement will be reached by the midnight deadline, but if that doesn’t happen, and the strike goes on longer than a few days, the media landscape beyond late night will gradually change. The first hiccups will be in network shows, then streaming, and finally, movies.
This season’s network TV shows have largely wrapped production, so the season finales of Law & Order and its ilk will probably not be affected, but if the strike goes on for 100 days like the 2007-2008 strike, the start of the fall TV season will most likely be delayed. A few productions have reportedly banked some episodes for the fall in preparation for the strike, but most shows haven’t, which will leave networks scrambling to find non-WGA programs to fill their air. The last time around, some programs that were already on the block were canceled outright. Networks fleshed out their schedules largely with reality TV (where the writers are called “producers” and aren’t in a union) back in 2007-2008, so I hope you like The Bachelor.
Streaming shows usually have longer lead time than network TV shows, so it could be months until the effect is seen on Netflix and Prime. Some streaming shows may have scripts written but haven’t been shot. The fate of those shows are up in the air, as the reaction of other entertainment unions could play a big part in whether production continues. More on that below.
Big budget movies will be the last to see the effects of a strike. It’s expected that the movies planned for this summer will be released as planned, but the schedule for the slate of films that are set for 2024 and 2025 are in play. Some may be delayed or canceled, and some may be released as scheduled, but will be different movies than they would have been if there had not been a strike.
Movies are generally re-written as they are produced, and a strike would mean they couldn’t be. Producers who opt to not delay filming would end up shooting their script exactly as written, or with changes only coming from actors. During the last strike in 2007-2008, a number of movies, including X-Men Origins: Wolverine, 2009’s Star Trek, and Quantum Of Solace were all affected by scripts that were “set in stone.” No one can say how much the lack of re-writes affected the quality of the final product, but I’m sure it made things harder on set.
Showrunners of scripted shows are a wildcard. They have a hybrid role, and could re-write their shows while wearing their “producer” hat, but it’s expected that most would honor their positions as WGA members and halt production.
A bigger wildcard than showrunners are the other entertainment unions. SAG-AFTRA has already advised its members to continue to work in the event of a strike. IATSE has yet to come down on one side or the other, although the union has advised its members that they have the legal right to refuse to cross the writers’ picket line if they choose. If they decide to honor the picket line, it’s likely that most production ceases— if the Teamsters don’t work, nobody works.
How does this strike differs from past writers strikes?
It’s been 15 years since the last writers strike, and the entertainment landscape has shifted heavily toward streaming since then. This has made viewers, on the whole, less dependent on freshly-made content—we’ll be able to finally watch The Sopranos and be fine. While being able to watch anything you want at will weakens the WGA’s position somewhat, on the other hand, public sentiment has shifted toward unions in a broad sense over the same time period, so hopefully viewers will support the striking writers.
For their part, producers seem to be more prepared for this strike than previous work stoppages. Perhaps having learned a lesson from the COVID shutdown, many producers have reportedly “banked” content in the months leading up to the strike deadline to lessen the effects on their bottom line should the writers not show up to work.
What is the strike about?
Although the explosion of streaming content has created more jobs for writers over the last decade, those jobs tend to pay less than more traditional writing gigs paid. According to the WGA, half of TV series writers work at minimum salary levels, compared to a third in the 2013-14 season. Ultimately, the writers are looking for larger salaries and larger residual payments from streaming.
The other main point of contention between the producers and the writers is artificial intelligence. Writers want assurance that AI scripts won’t be generated based on their previous work and would like a ban on being asked to re-write scripts generated by AI.
For a look at our dystopian entertainment future should the WGA strike fail, I asked ChatGTP to write a joke for a late night television program, and it came up with this:
Have you heard about the new restaurant called Karma? There’s no menu – you get what you deserve. So if you’ve been a good person, you might get a delicious meal. But if you’ve been a jerk, you’ll probably end up with a kale salad.
Chilling.